Saturday, May 31, 2014

Poll Alert! New EKOS on Monday




X Ethical Oil SpokesThing Running For Tim Hudak

Jamie Ellerton, his name is, and he's running down in Parkdale High-Park.  Click through link below for more on him:
 His bio is interesting:

As the Executive Director of a national NGO, Jamie gave expert testimony to the House of Commons Finance Committee on the 2012-2013 federal budget.

The NGO he is referring to is, of course, Ethical Oil.  But note that he will not refer to it by name.

Mark Steyn Hires A Spy

As my readers may know, conservative political commentator Mark Steyn is in some legal trouble, having gotten himself sued by climate scientist Mike Mann.  While we should be careful to judge these things before they are done, it is fair to say that things are not going well for Mr. Steyn.  His legal arguments have been shot down at every turn; one team of lawyers have already abandoned him suspecting, perhaps, madness.

Certainly, Mark's latest activity on this file has the stench of lunacy about it.  He has hired a private investigator to follow Mike Mann around and collect "evidence" of something or other:

I'm happy to announce we're now taking it to another level. As you know, legal maneuvering and the usual procedural folderol of the sclerotic US "justice" system has delayed my efforts to get Mann deposed, discovered, and for the first time in his life up on the witness stand, testifying about the "hockey stick" under oath. So it seems to me this is an excellent time to get on with the broader campaign against the climate mullahs. Aside from the best free-speech legal team in the land, we've now taken on someone to direct this side of the investigation against Mann. He's already working full-time on the case - he was in Washington yesterday for the Congressional hearings on the IPCC, and meeting with climate scientists and others. He'll also be heading to Penn State and other places hither and yon. I've been very grateful for your suggestions since I struck out on my own five months ago, and if you've any more I hope you'll continue to send them our team...

I don't know what Mark expects to find:  Dr. Mann handing off attache cases to Russia assasins, or maybe lunching with an agent from Hydra.  But it is particularly noteworthy that he's making public the fact that he has hired someone to tail the good doc. It smacks of an attempt to intimidate. When his case finally does get to trial, I imagine this will be useful in proving malice.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Tory Turmoil For Tim Hudak


See PCPO candidate Jeff Bennett disown Tim hudak's 1,000,000 jobs plan at local candidates debate.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Sri Lankan Paper Accuses NDP Candidate of Extremism

Don’t know quite what to make of this.  The source is a Sri Lankan Newspaper (The Sunday Leader); the guy in the picture does look like Neethan Shan, and he is definitely standing in front of a Tamil Tiger flag.  On the other hand, some of these Lankan papers through around their accusations pretty lightly.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Lame Group Of Seven Painting Fails To Sell

And no wonder.  Five dead trees, four rocks, a cloud, and an island.  And that is it. The trees aren't even blowing over the lake as in more ambitious G-of-7 pics.  This is very shoddy work, barely up their usual "rocks and trees" standard.  Yes it has all the required elements.  Rocks.  And trees. But just barely.  Like it was phoned in.  "Throw in some rocks.  Some trees.  Add Water.  Hey presto! More than they deserve!"

And I must say I am not generally impressed by this Lawren Harris charactor.  He apparently did all his painting sitting in the same chair out back his cottage.

Monday, May 26, 2014

PCPO Candidate For Simcoe-Grey Is Ready To Break Contracts

“We’ll do whatever it takes to stop WPD Canada from putting the wind turbines in this vicinity,” said [said PCPO candidate Jim] Wilson. “It is in process, and it may end up in a lawsuit, but we just can’t allow it.”

It seems to me that you can't effectively argue that the OLP was wrong to cancel those gas-pants...to the tune of zillions in legal and other fees...while at the same time promising to blow zillions by breaking contracts so as to cancel wind-farm projects.  In 2011 the OLP pandered to NIMBYS; in 2014 the PCPO is willing to pander to a different set of NIMBYS.

Dennis Gruending On The Federal Government's Callous Stance Re Syrian Refugees

...is here.  A small cruelty they must think they get away with, either because their supporters don't care at all or think one is too many.

Friday, May 23, 2014

New EKOS Poll Shows Steady OLP Lead, NDP Sliding Off Track Into Snow Fence Of Failure, Green Party Surge!!!!!!

From here.

Looking at the NDP numbers, one could make cheap jokes about "electile dysfunction", but we are above that here at BCLSB. The Green party spike is fascinating and, I hope, permanent.  Having even one GP rep has made an out-sized difference not only federally with Canadian Hero Lizzy May as an MP, but out in B.C. where Andrew Weaver has been stirring up shit like nobody's business as an MLA.  Electing a Green MPP in Ontario would be like a refreshing taste of spearmint in the stale air down at Queen's Park.

PS.  Yes just writing about Ontario polls is lazy but nothing else has got me really juiced the past couple of weeks.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Booyah! New Ipsos Poll Shows PCPO Collapse!

To watch Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs,  strut about twitter today, you'd've thought Hudak's PCPO had a strangle-hold on the Ontario provincial election.  But really their vote is imploding! According to his own damn polling agency:

Ontario Race Tightens: Hudak PCs Slip (35%, -4), Horwath NDP Gain (28%, +4) and Wynne Liberals Stall (31%, +1) among Decided Voters

Im...Fucking...ploding.  Darrell doesn't see this, cuz he's invested in some theory about "Laurentian Elites", where nine-toothed goobers from the West and the rural areas are taking over the political realm and us losers from the big cities, with our intellectuals and manufacturing and uppity multicult ways are doomed to be replaced by a bunch of  corn-pones who shovel pigshit and mine bitumen for a living.  But it looks like he's missing the BIG SHIFT, at least as it applies to Ontario.  Hudak's million pink-slip plan has laid an egg among the populace, and the soufflĂ© of discontent he was hoping to ride into office is in the process of falling into a dump cake made entirely of electoral  crap!!!  BOOYAH!!! BOOYAH!!! ONWARD OLP SOLDIERS!  VICTORY OR VALHALLA!!!!

New Forum Poll Shows OLP Moving Ahead

Sure its only Forum (from here, but behind irritating pay-wall.).  But it does show what common-sense dictates...that running on a platform of "leaner times for all" won't fire up no crowds. It also shows something confirmed by every other poll, regardless of source: that the NDP campaign has come out of the starting blocks like a burnt soufflĂ© from your mama's oven.  And the message they've  run on...trying to compete with Hudak for the right-wing vote...has been incoherent.  PCPO supporters still think they commies; their own supporters are no longer sure.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Most Interesting Bit From The New Abacus Poll

...which you can find in its entirety here:

Voters more likely to have been contacted by OLP or PC campaigns than NDP campaign.

...which reflects my own experience in Scarborough this time around.  The NDP has been very slow off the mark, them of the unparalleled ground game.  And they started the damn election in the first place!  Anyway, OK news for the OLP.  VICTORY OR VALHALLA!!!

Update: Derek Leebosh of Environics disputes my conclusion:



Die Media Die: Paywalls Already On Way Out




The author is Sandy MacLeod, vice-president for consumer marketing and strategy at The Toronto Star.  Not hard to forsee this one.  Really, the problem for the newspaper industry is nothing is working. Maybe "giving away news" ten years ago was a really bad idea, but it isn't something that can be put back in the box.  What's the answer?  I don't know the answer.

Monday, May 19, 2014

PCPO MPP Lisa MacLeod: An Inconvenient Clip


Its truncated, sure.  But anyone's first impression of PCPO MPP Lisa defending  Tim Hudak's jobs plan is that a Hudak gov. will somehow include women taking maternity leave in its total of 100,000 civil servants fired.  Clarification is surely needed.

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Hudak's New Ad

My favorite bit.  He's just fired a bunch of people.  It wasn't an easy decision.  It was a hard one. It didn't make him happy.

The rest of  is here.

Oh NDP,You Have So Sold Out

From CFRA:

Alex Cullen, the NDP candidate for Ottawa-West Nepean admitted public sector job cuts are likely if his party is in power following the June election, but would likely not approach the number proposed by the PC's.

The NDP!  Sacking civil servants!  I never thought I would see the day.  And the problem with this strategy is that the vote they're trying to steal, the Tory vote...those people don't buy it.  They still think the NDP are communists.  And the party base, the people who've voted Orange forever...they're starting to think maybe they aren't communists, and looking at Kathleen Wynne's OLP.   The NDP has convinced exactly the wrong crowd that they've abandoned their values.

So they taking it on both left and right buttock.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Hudak Adviser Ben Zycher Is Crazier Than I Thought. Tim Hudak Should Fire Him

I just picked up on the "in the tank for tabacco companies" stuff, and the AGW denialism.  I missed the really crazy stuff:
What he's talking about can be found here.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Hero Cat Video Is Probably Fake

Can't say why quite yet.  But I am betting it is. Cats are heartless, godless, flesh eating little shits.

Although this is not a bad theory.
Were all these shots edited afterwards?  The sequencing can't have happened naturally.  Also some of it looks CGI to me.

I Know Its Only A Forum Poll/ But I'll Take It

The 1,000,000 pink-slip plan is a dud:

Kathleen Wynne’s governing Liberals now lead with 38 per cent support to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, 21 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, and 5 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens.

In the May 2 Forum poll, the Tories were at 38 per cent, the Liberals 33 per cent, the NDP 22 per cent, and the Greens at 6 per cent.

And thank gawd!  For awhile there I thought a sketchy character with a crazy plan for sacking anyone who looks at him funny might actually be a hit with Ontarions.  Did they not learn from the dark ages of the Mike Harris regime? I wondered.  But maybe they did!

Next step, if history is a guide, will see Hudak back away from his plan later this week, then next week publicly set fire to any docs related to the plan and claim he's never seen them before.  There's a German word for being lucky in the choice of your enemies.  But I can't remember what it is and am too lazy to look it up. However, it applies here.  If this election is a battle of wits, Kathleen Wynne can go rent herself a victory hall.

And as for the NDP.  Well, what is the opposite of momentum?  Slow-mentum, anti-mentum...perhaps unmentum?  Because whatever it is they got a bad case of it.  BOOYAH!!   BOOYAH!   VICTORY OR VALHALLA!!!




Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Rally For Lulu

More information can be found here.

Ontario Tories Get Economic Analysis Of Million Job Plan From AEI Junk Scientist



One thing to know about the American Enterprise Institute is they've lobbied in the past against policies to curb both smoking and anthropogenic global warming, as has Zycher  as an individual.  For example, from his CV:
So, in short, they're nothing but kooks and corporate shills and so is he.  His analysis should be directed to the nearest waste-paper basket and recycled.

PS.  I've previously mentioned the AEI in these posts.

Monday, May 12, 2014

NDP Should Stop Crapping On Windsor

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is damaging Windsor’s economy by exaggerating and exploiting the Herb Gray Parkway girder dispute as an election issue, Mayor Eddie Francis claims.

Francis has asked the Horwath election campaign to cut it out. He’s asked twice — the party ignored a written request last week and returned to slagging Windsor’s most important infrastructure project first thing Monday.

“They’re being reckless and irresponsible,” Francis fumed after the Horwath team attacked the parkway project the second time. “They’re degrading the quality of the project and it’s hurting us.”

That is all.

Bad Math From Hudak? Press Release Over-Estimates Savings From Cancelling Fit Program By Factor Of 20?

Their news release can be found here. But here's a screen shot just in case they try to alter it:
Because Tom Adams, no friend of wind energy, says point 1. is just wrong:
In Tom's estimate, the real savings are a fraction of what's in the news release.  Specifically, 1/20th:
I'm not sure I trust Tom's numbers either.  I don't think, among other things, that he accounts for the legal bills that will start to mount-up when a Hudak government tries to cancel contracts.

In any case, one hopes its a screw-up, but the way these clowns have been throwing around numbers...
...they might have actually convinced themselves they will get 20 times more savings than in the best-case scenairo.

PS.  Worth noting that this story describes Tom as having drafted PC policy docs.   So if he says they screwed up, well he oughtta know.

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Surely You Jest. Tim Hudak Blames Unions For His Advance Team's Inability To File The Proper Fucking Paperwork

Tim Hudak's PCPOs have an excuse for why Mr. Hudak got his ass tossed off the TTC this morning for attempting to film an "availability" without getting clearance from the proper authorities.




Well, as to the PCPO's second point...let me think...give me some room here.  Maybe, just maybe, when the OLP did it they filled out the proper forms.  Maybe they had a guy on their advance team that could sign his own name so it could be read clearly rather than scrawling an "x" in red crayon.

Because this is what we have here: the campaign team for the guy who would fire 1,000s of civil servants, teachers and fire-fighters and pray to shit that  the private sector stepped up and fixed everything...CAN'T EVEN FIGURE OUT HOW TO HOLD A STUPID FUCKING EVENT ON A STUPID SUBWAY WITHOUT ATTRACTING COPS!!!  And his people are supposed to be emissarys from the private sector, hardcore capitalists gonna show the rest of us all how its done.  And they can't even manage to get on and off a subway car without causing chaos. Something that probably gay, probably Canada hating, probably Taliban loving artsy farts have managed to do on earlier occasions without any apparent issues.  So who are these small business enthusiasts that Tim Hudak has surrounded himself with?  Are they all pawnbrokers, or is there a chiropractor or two in there as well?   In any case, if it's to be a contest between the nanny state and these goofs right now it looks like nanny wins on the issue of competence.  That should embarrass all principled conservatives everywhere.

If Tim Hudak Runs The Province Like He Runs His Campaign, We're All Screwed

Immortalized on Youtube:

His plan to fix transit undermined by the fact his handlers are too dumb to successfully take a subway train.

Tim Hudak's Plans For Education?

The "?" is because I didn't listen to The House yesterday.  Should be easy enough to verify, though.

PS.  Between about the 24/25 minute mark Tim admits he will increase class sizes.  I don't hear him explicitly saying 60 students per teacher.

Update: Tim says he will follow the suggestions in the Drummond Report.  That means:

Saturday, May 10, 2014

UK Climate Change Deniers Forced To Clean Up Act?

The GWPF  are an organized group of  AGW denialists based in the UK.  They are fronted by the notorious Benny Peiser,  and are known more widely  for the fact that one of their money men  and spokespeople is Nigel Lawson, dad to the sweet and buxom Nigella.

Earlier this year they were called out, by Bob Ward among others, for being a lobby group and not, as they have always claimed, "an educational charity", as this term is defined by British law.

Earlier this week they basically admitted this charge to be true, and  offered to rejig their website so that a part of it would be separated off and proffer the straight-up lies you are allowed to peddle as a lobby group. The other portion, would, presumably, offer misinformation that didn't quite make the straight-up lie standard.


Ontario Fire Fighters Against Tim Hudak's Proposed Civil Service Cutbacks

BURLINGTON – The Ontario Professional Fire Fighters Association came out against 
Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s plan to cut 100,000 jobs from the public 
sector. 

“Tim Hudak can’t seem to make up his mind. He says he wants to bring jobs to the 
province, but then announced this morning that he plans to cut 20 percent of the jobs in 
the public sector,” said Mark McKinnon, President of the Ontario Professional Fire 
Fighters Association. “It’s scary to think that Mr. Hudak wants to cut 100,000 jobs – the 
population of cities like Niagara Falls and Brantford – and put hard-working middle class 
people out of work while the economy is still fragile just to balance the budget a little 
faster.” 

McKinnon added that Hudak’s announcement indicated that he was prepared to protect 
other public safety custodians – nurses, doctors, and police officers – but isn’t prepared 
to do the same for fire fighters who are on call 24 hours a day. 

There's more through the link. Incidentally, Hudak announced his plan to sack 1,000s at...wait for it...  Barrie Country Club, where a "full golf membership" costs  $999 and $369 per month.  So, yeah, this crowd understands the need for austerity.

Friday, May 09, 2014

Tim Hudak Is Mike Harris Squared

BARRIE — Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak says a Tory government would cut 100,000 jobs from the Ontario public sector.

He specifically mentioned firing teachers, so look out for another teacher's strike down the road.   And, like Mike Harris with his downloading, it appears Hudak will try and get the municpalities to do his dirty work for him:
Good to know.  Cast your votes accordingly.

PS. Worth noting that the whole Mike Harris agenda was less about cutting spending than using the downloading process and T.O. amalgamation to transfer city cash out to the boonies, then use pitchforks to shovel bales of the stuff off the back of pickup trucks and into the waiting arms of PCPO constituents.

PPS.  Derek Leebosh raises an excellent point:

Thursday, May 08, 2014

Ontario Polls, Two Of Them

A good one, from Innovative Research:

Worth noting that Ms. Horwath's NDP, who precipitated this election, have the exact opposite of momentum.  I call it unmentum, or nonmentum.

A crummy one, from Oracle, who aren't nearly as well-known.  Click through this link to see.   But if you are pro-OLP you might want to avert your eyes.  Note that here too the NDP are heading for an ignominious 3rd place finish.

In any case: thanks, pollsters, for clearly that up.

John Robson, Your Pain Sustains Me

Tim Hudak is a boob. And if that means Kathleen Wynne gets re-elected, don’t blame me. It wasn’t my idea.

That's the spirit!  Despair, self-loathing!  Ontario's political right as they get a close look at the pug they chose to carry their banner.  And we're barely a week into the campaign.  It could get worse.


Tuesday, May 06, 2014

GFL Update

Apparently, T.O. city Council has taken notice:
More info here.  Maybe this will get real reporters on the case.  Also, here's a scan of the negative report on GFL from the Ministry of Transportation:

Much thanks to @neville_park for forking out the $5.00.

Monday, May 05, 2014

Company Rob Ford Gave T.O. Garbage Contract To Has Safety Rating Downgraded

The one universally acknowledged success of Rob Ford administration at City Hall was his farming out of garbage collection west of Yonge St. to GFL Environmental.  However, at the time even some within the mayor's office were unsure of the GFL's ability to do the job properly; they had performed poorly out in Kawartha Lakes, and in 2011 their contact  had not been renewed for that area.

It turns out these doubts might have been prescient.   A recent (April 30th) Ontario Superior Court decision has been issued with regards to GFL's safety record as given by its Commercial Vehicle Operator Registration (or CVOR).  It turns out that earlier this year GFL's ranking was downgraded by the Ontario Registrar of Motor Vehicles, to "conditional" from its previous "satisfactory rating",  due to "a substantial deviation from acceptable safety standards", as the decision puts it.

This downgrade did not make GFL happy.  In fact the decision is a judgement on their "motion for a mandatory injunction or for a stay of the Registrar’s decision".  Specifically, the decision denies that motion, which may wind up having some significance for Toronto politics.  As GFL argued in its motion (bolding is mine):

... [GFL Environmental] will suffer irreparable harm if an interlocutory injunction or a stay is not granted because: (a) GFL Environmental will be disqualified from obtaining new municipal contracts; (b) GFL Environmental will be in default in its contractual obligations to current municipal clients; (c) the Applicants will suffer reputational harm; and (d) the Applicants will face increased insurance and financing costs.

Now, there certain complexities here.  Many in the trucking industry think the formula used by the Registrar discriminates against companies working urban routes:

CVOR [uses]  kilometric values...based on the premise that if you travel more kilometers, you must have greater exposure and should be granted additional points. This works well when two fleets of the same size and in the same line of work are compared and one is busier than the other. 

Unfortunately, it penalizes vehicle fleets [which] do not travel very far compared to a highway tractor, but we are subjected to the same exposure or more than a highway tractor due to urban road conditions. Therefore changes to the current system should benefit CCLA [Canadian Courier & Logistics Association] members. 

And in fact this is the argument GFL Environmental put forward in its motion.  But whatever.  GFL may be in default of its contract with the City of Toronto.  If so, Rob Ford's one acknowledged success may wind up being yet another failure.

PS.  You can buy the CVORs for $5.00 a pop from here.

Andrea Horwath: What? No Policy?

Andrea Horwath's day today consists of one media  interview, a media availability, and two photo ops.  That is all.  It is, indeed, all.

Saturday, May 03, 2014

Richard Tol Corrects

This is fairly big news.  Richard Tol, him of the freaky hair, and, to his credit, one of the first wave of economists to study the economics of climate change, has long argued that--until  global warming pushed the planet's average temperature above the two degree C threshold proscribed by the IPCC as an acceptable upside limit--AGW's economic effects would be, when you combined all the local pluses and minuses, beneficial to the planet as as whole.  After some fierce criticism from Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Mr. Tol has admitted he was wrong: the economics of global warming start to suck before we reach the U.N.'s  two degree maximum:
And here's the (Figure 2) Tol speaks of:
Note how, as Richard himself says, the global economy suffers under all estimates before we reach the IPCC's 2 degree limit, and in one case actually seems to take a shit and die

Good on Richard for issuing the correction.  That's how science is supposed to work.

Update: First "this" above now goes through to full text of Tol's correction.

Friday, May 02, 2014

Trudeau's Honeymoon Is Over? I Think Perhaps Not!

From Forum:

As has been the case since Trudeau became leader of the Liberals, his party continues to enjoy about a 10 per cent advantage over the Conservatives in the Forum polls, 39 per cent to 30 per cent — numbers that haven’t changed since last month.

The NDP sit at 20 per cent, down slightly from last month’s 22 per cent support.

OK.  That's just Forum.  But EKOs has some federal numbers out today too, and an accompanying graph!
Who knows about the honeymoon, but can we at least hold off on the obituaries?

Lorrie Goldstein May Be A Kook, But

...he's not necessarily wrong about this:
You might make a counter-argument that in places like Scarborough, where there are a lot of new Canadians, Chow and ROFO are fishing in the same pond, and these folks might go Olivia's way if he's out of the race.  But I'll bet someone on her campaign team is looking at polls like this and thinking that with ROFO still in they are facing a devil they know, at a chunk of voters who will not redistribute en masse to John Tory.  But if ROFO goes all the dice get thrown anew.

Either way, by October it may be Rob Ford who winds up splitting the right-wing vote.  Who would have thought that?



New Ontario Poll: Pain For NDP, Green Party Rides ROFO Coat-Tails

From here.  Meanwhile our gal Kathleen is doing A-OK.  And we can assume the Green Party uptick is due to Rob Ford's recent endorsement.  I mean, why not?

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Kinder Morgan On The Upside To An Oilspill

It's unquestionably true that, for some people, disasters can be "good for business".  So can wars.

From here, incidentally.

Gas Plants Redux...But With Torys And Wind Farms

From PCPO MPP Todd Smith:

Prince Edward County, ON — Responding to a request for clarification by CCSAGE Naturally Green regarding the PC Party’s position on wind projects currently “in the pipeline”, local MPP Todd Smith has confirmed by letter that, under a PC government, such projects will not be allowed to proceed if there is no municipal consent.

Smith referred to the text of Bill 42, the Affordable Energy and Restoration of Local Decision Making Act, introduced by Tim Hudak in the Ontario Legislature in 2012. Smith said, “The intention here is quite clear that, regardless of where in the process a project is, provided a project is not connected to the grid, it is our intention not to go ahead with it unless it has municipal consent. Clearly, the projects planned for Prince Edward County do not have municipal consent and thus, would be cancelled.”

Its worth noting that Tim Hudak has said in the past that projects in the pipeline will be allowed to proceed, so this sounds like a bit of free-lancing on Smith's part.  To make the stupidity of it even greater, Todd Smith is for The Marmora project, which is a pumped energy storage facility meant to work as a battery to store power from wind-farms and other intermittent energy sources.  Anyway, lawsuits be damned, apparently! How Hudak's Tories can criticize the OLP for cancelling those gas-plants while getting set to go down exactly the same road--except this time pandering to a different set of voters over a different power generating source--is beyond me.

PS. The analogy to Trillium's cancelled wind farm doesn't really hold, I don't think.  That project was early on in the process.  No contract was in place.