Thursday, August 27, 2009

Latest Ekos Poll

proves previous Ipsos poll crap.

An Ekos poll showed the Conservatives at 32.6 percent of decided voters and the Liberals at 30.9 percent, roughly the same as a week earlier. The two parties tied at 37 percent in Ontario, Canada's most populous province.

"This weeks's national sample of vote intention...suggests they (the Liberals) may want to think twice," Ekos said on Thursday in releasing the results.

But why? Given the efficiency of the Lib. vote etc. etc., these numbers look like a thin Lib. Minority. And, at the very least, the Ont. figure would be a marked improvement over 2008.

Go for it, sez I!

More details at Ms. O'Malley 's.

11 comments:

roblaw said...

Oh. And BCL. I'm not the only "dreamer" today if you think that an election will result in a minority Liberal government.

Though - I will concede.. it's probably only going to get worse for Ignatieff as time goes on.

bigcitylib said...

Roblaw,

Most pollsters seem to agree that the Tories have to be about 3 or 4points up to get a minority. All those votes in Alberta do them no good.

Ti-Guy said...

There's still a story on that Ipsos-Reid poll that needs to come out.

I'm sick and tired of this media manipulation and really despondent at how effective and easy it is.

Fred said...

"All those votes in Alberta do them no good."

Kinda like all those Toronto votes do no good for Iggy & the LPC.

Long shot bet on Iggy being able to campaign. He's used to being handed the goodies, not having to get out and operate a campaign.

Jon Pertwee said...

Sure Fred:

Long shot on Fred saying anything intelligent. He's used to receiving his Conservative talking points on a regular basis, not having to think and formulate intelligent and original comments.

Ti-Guy said...

And Fred's been consistently retarded for years. That takes real dedication and effort.

Hey, moron? No amount of increased support in Alberta is going to make a difference to Harper since the Conservatives have swept the province.

Steve V said...

No minority with those Ontario numbers.

Ti-Guy said...

I see The National Post continues to be a half-way house for sinecure whores.

KC said...

Most pollsters seem to agree that the Tories have to be about 3 or 4points up to get a minority. All those votes in Alberta do them no good.

Got any source on that? I know the Tories don't necessarily beat the Liberals by winning the popular vote but I've never heard it so authoritatively stated that they need an extra "3 or 4 points".

Long shot on Fred saying anything intelligent

...

And Fred's been consistently retarded for years. That takes real dedication and effort.


In this case Fred did say something intelligent. Toronto is pretty red and any increase in votes there does nothing to their seat count--just like more votes in Alberta doesn't mean more Conservative seats.

He also correctly observed Iggy is used to "being handed the goodies, not having to get out and operate a campaign". He's won twice in a safe riding and never actually won the Liberal leadership by campaigning. Remember the National Exec's coup that forced Rae and Leblanc out of the race and Iggy's subsequent acclamation at the Liberal convention. His campaigning skills are yet to be proven. Lets not forget that out on the campaign trail for the 2006 race he was pretty gaffe prone.

bigcitylib said...

I made a comment about Tory vote ineffiency's last week on Kady's blog and she came back with:

"Actually, depending on how the regionals break down, that's probably true; the rule of thumb is that the Conservatives have to be at least four points ahead of the Liberals to win a minority, and at somewhere around 40% for a majority."

She didn't supply a source.

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