Saturday, June 20, 2009

Libs Take A Hit


Iggy got buffeted in the press this week, and it looks like its shown up in the latest polling numbers (although its all within the margin):

But if an election were to be held tomorrow, it would be a very tight race. The Liberals (35%, down 1 point) and the Conservatives (34%, up 1 point) are in a statistical tie among decided voters, while the NDP (13%, up 1 point), and Green Party (8%, down 1 point) trail. The Bloc is at 10% support nationally (up 1 point), while 6% of voters remain undecided.

I suppose the problem with convincing everyone that the timing of the election is in your hands, is that you might get blamed for (almost) precipitating an unpopular election. That's my 1st take on these numbers, if it isn't a matter of interpreting twitches. Again, once in a campaign, I doubt anyone will care who started it, esp. if its a more conventional fall election.

9 comments:

William said...

Take a look at the CROP numbers in QC released today:

PLC 35, BQ 31, NDP 17, CONS 13

1000+ respondants

James Curran said...

Thank God we didn't have an election then William. Wouldn't want to gain any seats in Quebec now would we.

William said...

James, I toured my riding last week, NO ONE was in for an election, including most of my volunteers...patience - wait for the fall...

kirbycairo said...

Patience everyone.... while we wait for the total degradation of democracy into fascism.

Fred said...

The Quebec numbers are heavily skewed because of the very high concentration of support in Montreal. Outside of the city, the Libs numbers tank.

Jon Pertwee said...

Fred, link?

william said...

Sorry Fred, 36 BQ 31 Lib in Francophone QC which means that most federalist ridings (townships, 405 south shore, Quebec City, outaouais) are all red now. Might be tight, but they are red...

Reality Bites said...

Hey, at least Harper's still ahead of the Greens in Quebec.


For now.

Tootrusting said...

It's the next few months that will be the most telling and have me the most worried.

Harper traditionally does better when parliament is not sitting and no one is attempting to hold him accountable.

The Con spin machine will be in high gear and if the Iggy bashing attacks are going to start having an affect this will be the time.

Do we have a plan other than barbaques?