Sunday, March 30, 2008

New Quebec Poll: Liberals Maintain

...the same province-wide percentage of the vote as they did in the 2006 election.

Not that the new CROP poll is good news. Quite the opposite. But it arguably portends no worse a result than election'06 actually produced. And the stuff about Quebec Liberals being "reduced to a rump" isn't so much false as redundant, as it has already occurred.

Good news for the Tories, as it might result in...I don't know...another 5 or 10 seats or so (they picked up 25% in 2006) at the expense of the Bloc. But, in the bigger picture, this is probably more than countered by the fact they appear to be cratering in Ontario.


biff said...

An election will be triggered in the next four weeks (Dion sees that there is no other way, and Iggy is now pushing hard due to Rae's entry.):

The results:

A significant Conservative majority (though not a landslide).

They will pick up 14 seats in Quebec, 1 in the Maritimes, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Manitoba, and 2 in BC.

biff said...

Outside of Toronto center, and a few clusters of ridings on the Atlantic coast, the Liberals are showing a consistent 15-20 pt drop in spread in most ridings.

As was principally the case in the last two by-elections (and as was called by yours truly).

The above call is somewhat conservative given the drop in spread,

but hey, better to be conservative, right.

Ti-Guy said...

Be quiet, Biff.

Steve V said...


Any evidence for your Ontario assertions?

Thought so. Oh ya, I'm sure there is some internal poll that we're missing. Actually, when you look at how Harper backed off last week, pretty much confirms that their internal polling is disasterous, but hey keep on deluding yourself, Harper isn't anymore. If an election were held today, the Libs would pickup seats in Ontario, there is anything but the dreamed "breakthrough".

BTW dipshit, I predicted Outremont too, long before anyone took it seriously, so your usual retort is meaningless.

Some proof on the ground, the candidate in Guelph, which is a bellweather riding, according to the Cons, can't even raise enough money to open her office, the national party is being forced to pour in money to augment. I can smell it on the ground, and Biff all I smell is your bullshit.

Ti-Guy said...

Any evidence for your Ontario assertions?

Let's start with evidence that Biff is in fact not a fart that somehow has learned to work a computer.

biff said...


you seem to be under the impression that national press polls of 1000 or so people somehow is an accurate predictor of what the Ontario vote will be.

So out of 1000 people, they poll about 300 from Ontario.

Do you know how many different ridings there are in Ontario? No one could extrapolate to the various ridings, with a sample of about 300.

The internals do that. They are much more expensive: they poll more people, drill down to voter intention, and are much, much more accurate.

I've already explained other problems with press polls.

You don't have to believe me thought Steve. Nor do you have to believe that the press polls over counted the Liberal vote in Outremont by almost 20 points.

It's really up to you.

Gayle said...

Steve - seriously, biff is a liar.

His sole purpose is to post his nonsense in the hope that someone might believe him and be concerned.

He is making it all up. Just ignore him.

biff said...

Yes Gayle,

Not being able to extrapolate the voting intention of a massive province like Ontario, with dozens of large urban centers and hundreds or rural and suburban municipalities,

on the basis of a poll of 300 people is a "lie".

Your foul shrieking is more telling than any poll.

biff said...

In terms of background fundamentals, it's also well known that Ontario generally follows the "nationalist" vote out of Quebec.

In short, they don't want to be a regional fringe. In the last election it was still believed that the Liberals were the true nationalist party in Quebec. That is now out of the question.

Finally, voters in Ontario tend to prefer a balance between federal and provincial parties. With a liberal provincial government, they will lean more toward conservatives federally.

This is all well accepted in political circles.

Then again, if "your friend in Guelph" says otherwise, who can argue against that.

I'll take a chance though, and stick with my numbers above.

Gayle said...

One more thing Steve

biff gets really cranky when s/he is called out.

Reality Bites said...

He also doesn't understand the HUGE difference between "nationalist" and "federalist."

biff said...

I'll be back here when the results come in pretty much as I stated above.

Not to gloat. I'm above that. But to view, from a purely social scientific standpoint, the means by which you will all continue justify you were right, notwithstanding the actual result.

I suspect it will be along the lines of a series of conspiracy type scenarios in which Harper "stole" the election.

In any event it will be a fascinating phenomenon to observe.