Sunday, November 25, 2007

The Poll By The Pollster Nobody Believes, For the Newspaper Nobody Reads

Looks like CanWest has quit trying to stuff their latest Federal Poll:

"The poll said that the Tories had dropped to 39 per cent support - a decline of three percentage points - while the Liberals had been bumped up one point to 29 per cent of decided voters. The NDP held steady at 15 per cent support while the Green Party went up slightly by one point to eight per cent of the vote."

Of course the support levels here are freakish, not supported by any of the respectable polling companies (which put the Libs higher and the Cons lower), and most likely a result of Ipsos being paid monkey-boys for the Natty Post.. But the Conservative plunge in support is significant. Read how Ipsos claims it has nothing to do with Mulroney crawling out of the sewer, waving his dirt stained dick at the nation, and implicating Harper.

(Update: Steve V thinks the decline is a simple function of Ipsos having readjusted its assumptions so as not to appear too far out of line with the other pollsters. He may be right. In any case, he explains his reasoning here.)

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Notice how the polling ends before Harper's gong show in Uganda.

Reality Bites said...

When you apply "the margin of Ipsos" (that is to say the usual difference between them and reputable polls) this translates to the Conservatives at 32 and the Liberals at 35.

A question to throw out there - If the Liberals do indeed want to bring the government down in February as has been reported, what are the chances the NDP and BQ will co-operate? If it's a good time for the Liberals to go, by definition it's not a good time for the BQ and NDP, unless we can get the Cons reliably below 30% or so, and all three parties can anticipate gains.

deno said...

"The Poll By The Pollster Nobody Believes, For the Newspaper Nobody Reads"


If nobody read this newspaper then how come you know what it is reporting?

Deno

Aaron Unruh said...

"...and implicating Harper."

Geez, even Scott Tribe isn't pushing this line anymore.

900 ft Jesus said...

I think Stevie's embarrassing performance as the little dictator at the Commonwealth meeting may drop him in the polls as well.

Anonymous said...

you mean to say that all the movement was within the margin or error? wow.

Reality Bites said...

Anon, Ipsos-Reid polls are generally outside the margin of error of anyone else's polls.

It's amazing how often I/R polls are the 1 out of 20 that are outside the margin. The 39 and 29 they're showing are STILL outside the margin of error, but slightly closer to it.

Anonymous said...

RB,

I'm not sure you understadn the concept behind MOE.

Reality Bites said...

I'm not sure you understand the concept behind typing. And perhaps more importantly, the concept of sarcasm. I'll state it more clearly: Ipsos-Reid polls are junk. Referring to their margin of error is a pointless exercise since every poll they produce shows the Conservatives higher than any other pollster's results by MORE than the margin of error.

Anonymous said...

rb, no need to get personal.

you wrote: "The 39 and 29 they're showing are STILL outside the margin of error, but slightly closer to it."

whose margin or error are you talking about? Within their poll, Ipsos is saying that with 95% CI, the final poll numbers fall in the range of 42-36 for the Conservatives and 32-26 for the libs, 19 times out of 20. The last poll Ipsos did was most likely an outlier, that 1%...no doubt.

I just find it funny watching people on both sides championing polls that support their party and dissing the ones that don't. Or saying that a 3% drop and a 1% increase (all within MOE), regardless of party, is something to get excited about.

As for which polling agency is better, I tend not to look at that, but at trends from all the pollsters. A convergence of evidence, if you will. And they are all saying that we are at a stand-still, with a lot of undecideds votes out there.

Steve V said...

BCL

Don't you find it odd, that all of sudden there is no Ipsos poll last week, which just happens to coincide with all the other polls showing a tight race?

Reality Bites said...

How can one get personal with an anonymous coward?

Anonymous said...

I don't know, but I'm guessing that your mother did not name you reality bites :)

but back to the topic at hand...

bigcitylib said...

Steve,

It is suspicious. On the other hand, with no chance of a Fall election, all of the pollsters seem to have cut back.

Anonymous said...

We need to beat back the Liberal menace that has poisoned Canada for the last 40 years. The stink of Trudeamania still remains. Liberalism is like a social disease.

I can't wait for the next election. The Liberal leaders will be stabbing each other in the back, their coffers will be empty, and their only advertising campaign will be desperate fear mongering.

"Don't vote for Harper - HE WANTS TO EAT YOUR CHILDREN!!! HE IS THE DEVIL!!!"