Thursday, July 27, 2006

A Consensus Emerges

...from both right and the left, that Israel is losing this war. Newsweek's Christopher Dickey (one of my foreign policy faves) concurs in this net-only article:

The bottom line: Hezbollah is winning. That's the hideous truth about the direction this war is taking, not in spite of the way the Israelis have waged their counterattack, but precisely because of it. As my source Mr. Frankly put it, "Hezbollah is eating their lunch."

Read the article to find out why.

I think the important point is not whether this outcome is good or bad. It's that people who have been urging a limited response on the part of Israel have been counseling restrain for fear of exactly this outcome: Hezbollah plants its flag atop the mountain of rubble that Lebanon becomes.

As an interesting side-note, CBC is reporting that Israel will not expand its current campaign past the pathetic strip of land it is even now working to secure. They've had enough, in other words. "Terror Capital" Bint Jbeil will be taken, and the Israelis will pack it in. Lots of bombs still to fall, however.


Anonymous said...

Hisbullah is winning . . . for sure . . just like the Torran Maple Losers . . .

Anonymous said...

"Tehran scared shitless that Hisbullah is being wiped out"

Mullahs: Condi war criminal; Tel Aviv a target

.When Hitler was totally enraged, the story goes, he would throw fits and bite the carpet. Whether it’s true or not, Tehran’s mullahs look like they biting a Persian rug. There are some Mad Mullahs in Tehran today.

According to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) someone named Mohsen Rezai just declared in an interview with the Iranian News Channel that:

1. There will be chaos in Tel Aviv “if Hezbollah’s patience runs out.”

“There are atomic and chemical arsenals right between Haifa and Tel Aviv, and there might be problems there. An unexpected situation might develop.”

... Interviewer: “So if they push Hizbullah to the Litani (River), Haifa may still get hit?”

Mohsen Rezai: “Haifa goes without saying…”

Interviewer: “Tel Aviv as well?”

Mohsen Rezai: “Hizbullah has trump cards, but Israel has exploited Hizbullah’s humanitarianism. (Sic).”“

But that’s not enough.

2. “Condoleezza Rice should be tried as the first female war criminal.”

“In my opinion, it would be best if the legal experts of the Islamic world prepare some kind of legal action against Ms. Rice. I think this lady is the first ever female war criminal, and she should be brought to trial. She has explicitly declared – and I think this was a political mistake by her – that she is giving Israel a free hand to attack Lebanon. This in itself is enough to prepare a case against her as a war criminal.”

Psychiatrists will recognize these fantasies as classic expressions of malevolent, narcissistic rage. This is what certain people do when they are thwarted.

Who is Mohzen Rezai? He is the Secretary of the Expediency Council of Iran, the most powerful body of mullahs which really runs the country. He is also a former Commander of the Iran Revolutionary Guards, which created, trained, supplied, indoctrinated, and has directed Hezbollah for the last twenty years.

Is he dangerous? You bet. Can he and ilk be stopped? It’s happening right now. That’s how we can tell that Israel’s attack on Hezbollah is succeeding.

Kudos to Condi Rice, President Bush, and the IDF

Billmon said...

Guys, you're living in a fantasy world. The mullahs and RG fanatics ALWAYS talk like that. But listen to what your own (and by that I mean Israel) generals and politicians are saying right now and look at what they're doing. They're freaking out. The ISRAELI GOVERNMENT is calling for international peacekeepers to be sent it. Do you really think they would be doing that if they thought they were winning??

Anonymous said...

Corrections, David Warren

Before we get to the uplifting substance of today’s column, let me briefly skirmish with the innumerable correspondents who have filled my inbox with outrage against my justifications for Israel’s attacks. They parrot what they have heard in the “liberal” media. The errors of fact I’m about to correct are beneath the elementary. But it is necessary to correct big lies as well as small.

Item: Israel has attacked Lebanon, which is too weak to defend itself.

This is a lie. The Israelis have made it abundantly clear they are not attacking Lebanon, but Hezbollah entrenched in Lebanese soil. Israelis, as anyone with any decency, feel sorry for innocent Lebanese caught in the crossfire. But as Israel’s foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, put it to the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel: “Whether weak or strong, a government carries the responsibility for whatever happens within its country.” She went on to hint the obvious: that Israel would prefer a Lebanon strong enough to disarm Hezbollah without Israeli help.

Item: The Israeli military operations are “excessive”, and include unnecessary strikes against Lebanon’s infrastructure and capital city.

This is a damned lie. Israel has been attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, which necessarily includes infrastructure that Hezbollah uses. Even the attacks on the Beirut airport were to a purpose openly stated, and advertised in extensive leafleting and broadcasting before the airport’s runways were cratered, and fuel depots taken out. From hard past experience, the Israelis knew Hezbollah would be using that airport not only to whisk their prisoners to safekeeping in Iran, but as a conduit to bring Iranian and Syrian advisers, and crucial supplies, in and out of the country. The strikes elsewhere in Beirut are overwhelmingly on the southern, Shia part of the city, where Hezbollah’s masters have their command. Lebanese television and radio have themselves been broadcasting Israeli communiqu├ęs, clearly warning what they will hit, when, and why. The overwrought charge that Israel is “trying to destroy Lebanon” is an imposture. If the Israelis actually wanted to destroy all of Lebanon, they could carpetbomb the place.

Item: There is a huge civilian toll.

Statistics. And given the scale of the conflict, the number of deaths is not abnormally high. Our media have been giving running totals of civilian deaths in Lebanon that they should know are both wrong and misleading. They cannot know how many have been killed in Hezbollah’s “hidey holes”. Foreign reporters are in no position to distinguish between real civilians, and the Hezbollah fighters who blend among them. Even the United Nation’s humanitarian point-man, Jan Egeland -- no friend of Israel -- has noted actual boasts from Hezbollah that their "human shield" strategy has got so many women and children killed, and so few of their own fighters. They cache their weapons in schools, hospitals, houses, apartment buildings. They hold civilians at gunpoint who are trying to flee. In light of all this, the stress on specific casualties -- for instance the poor little boy who was suffering hideously in a hospital in Tyre, that CNN went to town on, Monday night -- is a flagrant appeal to emotionalism, calculated to enflame misinformed audiences against Israel, throughout the West and the Arab world.

But now we come to the paradox. Despite some of the best efforts I’ve seen, by our liberal media, to spread poison, there is a growing understanding of what is taking place. Better yet, the response of the Arab world is increasingly directed against Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran; and even against Iran’s other client, Hamas in Gaza (now suing for peace). This is unprecedented.

In a partly incoherent, rambling, and apocalyptic address on official Iranian TV, Sunday, President Ahmadinejad said, "Lebanon is the scene of an historic test, which will determine the future of humanity.” Then, after condemning the unnamed leaders of various Arab regimes that had failed to align with Iran and Hezbollah, “This is ‘the Day that all things secret will be tested’.”

Iran unquestionably ordered the rocket and kidnapping attacks with which Hezbollah and Hamas provoked the current Israeli reaction (though it may have been greater than they expected). The ayatollahs are probably also behind the current terror spike within Iraq. Their motive is quite obvious: to change the subject from the Western and growing Arab alarm about Iran’s own emergence as a bellicose nuclear power. The ayatollahs are, further, trying to cement their claim to be the managing directors of the international Jihad.

Ahmadinejad is right: this is “an historic test”. But it does not follow that he is winning it. Instead, it appears, by pushing too hard and fast, Iran has opened a civil breach across the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni. The ayatollahs have thus created a new opportunity for the West to form alliances with Sunni Muslim states against Iran’s aspiring regional hegemony, which the Bush administration is now rightly trying to exploit. Ahmadinejad has, in short, given us an unexpected reason to hope -- as Hitler did, when he began to make too many enemies.

Billmon said...

Oh yeah, Israel is winning all right:

AP: "Israel decides not to expand offensive"

Billmon said...

"The ayatollahs have thus created a new opportunity for the West to form alliances with Sunni Muslim states against Iran’s aspiring regional hegemony"

Sure, that's why the Saudis and the Gulf states have all been sending diplomatic missions to Tehran, begging to be left alone, and why the all the major Arab regimes have just deserted from the war against Hizbullah.

If you guys don't get a grip on reality, you are going to end up fighting World War III/IV -- and losing it.

Ilia Capitolina said...


Keep up the good work. I hope that Steve Harper personally signs your paychecks, cause you my dear friend deserve every penny.

bigcitylib said...


I'd be interested in your take on how this all ends. The NATO peacekeeping force won't go anywhere soon. Do you see the whole thing petering out, with maybe the Israelies holding onto a strip of Lebanon?

Anonymous said...

Israel's goal from the outset has been to clear Hezzy out of the Lebanese border area which is being accomplished at pace. The desire for an "international force" (not UN)to police the border is a smart way to pass off the long term costs of controlling Hezzy to NATO/Euroweenies/Canucks, and in doing so ensure the west has a vested interest in keeping Hezzy down on the farm. What BCL portrays as an Israel failure is
is a strategically brilliant move which will rebound on western taxpayers.

Anonymous said...

Hisbollah loses another "garage"

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